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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/27 11:01
Corn, Wheat Lower; Beans Higher Midday Monday
Corn trade is 8 to 19 cents lower; beans are 8 to 17 cents higher and wheat
is 2 to 10 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn trade is 8 to 19 cents lower; beans are 8 to 17 cents higher and wheat
is 2 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 30
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.50 lower. Interest rate products are weaker.
Energies are mixed with crude up $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder
cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $9.00.
CORN:
Corn trade is 8 to 19 cents lower at midday Monday with trade firming back
from the early day session lows and stronger spread trade after rains in much
of the central belt over the weekend. Traders will continue to watch the
forecast with more focus on corn pollination temperatures as we push into July,
with concerns muted currently. The export wire will need to show value buyers
picking up bushels on the break with nothing on the daily report yet. Weekly
export inspections remained rangebound at 1.246 million metric tons, with
weekly crop progress expected to show steady to slightly lower condition
ratings with maturity catching up to average. The ethanol margins are likely to
remain rangebound with strong blender margins remaining in place with unleaded
moderating in recent days. Basis remains solid through most of the Corn Belt,
with most place moving their bids to the September contract. On the July
contract chart, we have support at the 100-day at $7.36 with resistance at the
$7.59 20-day.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean trade is 8 to 17 cents higher at midday with firmer spread trade and
buying developing after the gap lower on the opening, with oil retaking the
lead from meal to bolster crush margins during the day session. Meal is $7.50
to $8.50 higher, and oil is 0.90 cent to 1.00 cent higher. Biodiesel margins
are very good at the moment, which should bolster crush recovery a bit. South
America is moving towards post-harvest footing at this point with planting
wrapped up for full season in the U.S. and is getting started on double crop
with wheat harvest moving quickly. Basis is fading a bit at processors and
exporters in recent days with the daily wire remaining quiet. Weekly export
inspections stayed within the recent range at 468,309 metric tons, with weekly
crop progress expected to show conditions steady to slightly lower, with
maturity near average. On the July soybean chart, support is at $15.78, the May
9 low, with resistance is now at the 100-day at $16.48, then the 20-day at
$16.94.
WHEAT:
Wheat trade is 2 to 10 cents lower at midday with two-sided trade and fresh
lows scored early in the day session as harvest continues to move forward in
the U.S. and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, along with mixed interest in
the world export market. The Chicago contract continues to show the most
strength as it has led the most recent sessions with Minneapolis struggling as
spring wheat is expected to show further improvement on the crop progress
report Monday afternoon. Winter wheat is expected to be showing harvest close
to half complete along with steady conditions. Weather in the Plains should
allow for harvest to continue moving with a few areas slowed by rains. The
dollar continues to hold in the upper end of the range with the strong ruble
helping competitiveness as well with Russia expected to have near record
supplies with other Black Sea supply diminishes with Middle East tenders
shrinking. Weekly export inspections picked up a little at 352,404 metric tons.
The KC July chart has support at the fresh low at $9.76 scored overnight with
the lower Bollinger Band at $9.86 and the 20-day still well above the market at
$11.17.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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