DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/21 11:18

   Weaker Tones Send the Livestock Contracts Lower 

   Thursday's marketplace isn't a rallying vibrant market for the livestock 
complex as outside pressures keep traders cautious.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Doggish tones have taken over the livestock complex as traders remain 
skeptical of our nation's economy and don't see enough immediate support in 
today's market to justify trading the contracts higher. Still no cash cattle 
trade has developed, and it's looking like the week's trade could be delayed 
until Friday at this point. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and 
December soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 
138.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Even though it's expected that the cash cattle market will trade at least 
steady this week if not a little higher, the live cattle complex too has fallen 
subject to some pressure this morning. October live cattle are down $1.37 at 
$185.40, December live cattle are down $1.45 at $190.07, and February live 
cattle are down $1.20 at $194.65. No bids are currently being offered and at 
this point, it's looking like the week's trade could be delayed until something 
Friday. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $185 to $186 but are still 
elusive in the North. Trade could even be slow to develop on Friday until 
feedlots and packers see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveils.

   Beef net sales of 13,700 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous 
week and up 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were 
Japan (3,700 mt), South Korea (3,100 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.08 ($301.34) and select down $0.20 
($278.48) with a movement of 69 loads (36.71 loads of choice, 17.55 loads of 
select, 5.92 loads of trim and 8.37 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Even though corn prices are trending $0.06 to $0.07 lower into Thursday's 
noon hour, there simply isn't enough support in today's market to comfortably 
allow traders to advance the feeder cattle complex. Yes, demand still remains 
strong in the countryside as thin supplies of feeders keep the buying 
environment hot, but from a technical sense, the market is cold and cautious. 
September feeders are down $1.15 at $253.00, October feeders are down $2.65 at 
$257.92 and November feeders are down $2.37 at $263.10. Traders will also feel 
more comfortable once they see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveils as 
there's a wide discrepancy in where analysts believe placements could land.

LEAN HOGS:

   Pinpointing all of what is affecting the lean hog market on this Thursday 
morning is a difficult task. Is it the market's outside pressures that have 
traders sending the contracts $2.00 to $3.00 lower? Or is it that traders got 
overly aggressive in their upward push of the contracts that they're now 
retracting some of their moves? It's likely that the answer lies in the middle 
of these two questions as both are likely to be having an effect on the 
contracts this morning. October lean hogs are down $2.22 at $83.55, December 
lean hogs are down $3.57 at $74.65, and February lean hogs are down $2.85 at 
$78.05. It's likely that the market sees this type of pressure through closing 
and looks to Friday's market, or potentially even next week's market, for 
direction and a way to move forward.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/20/2023 is up $0.50 at $87.17, and the 
actual index for 9/191/2023 is up $0.09 at $86.67. Hog prices are unavailable 
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can 
see that only 160 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling 
average now sits at $78.14. Pork cutouts total 192.16 loads with 167.39 loads 
of pork cuts and 24.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.04, $99.18.

   Pork net sales of 30,200 mt for 2023 were up 31% from the previous week and 
1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,500 
mt), South Korea (3,600 mt) and Canada (3,300 mt).

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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